HousingMarket

Royal LePage: Canadian home prices forecast to rise 5.5% by the end of 2021 as low inventory and unmet demand set to fuel price increases

  • Aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area forecast to rise 5.75%
  • Tech and government sector expansion to drive Ottawa prices up 11.5%
  • Canada’s priciest city to experience 9.0% rise as housing demand in Vancouver surges
  • Halifax and Greater Montreal prices forecast to rise 7.5% and 6.0%, respectively
  • Calgary, Edmonton prices buck regional economic drag, to show modest price growth

TORONTO, ON, December 14, 2020 – Housing demand exceeded expectations in the second half of 2020. The supply of homes available for sale failed to keep pace, driving home prices higher and pushing unmet buyer demand into the new year. According to the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate[1] price of a home in Canada is set to rise 5.5 per cent year-over-year to $746,100 in 2021, with the median price of a two-storey detached house and condominium projected to increase 6.0 per cent and 2.25 per cent to $890,100 and $522,700, respectively.[2]

“The leading indicators we analyze are pointing to a market that favours property sellers in the all-important spring of 2021,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Across the country, a large number of hopeful buyers intent on improving their housing situation were not able to find the home they were looking for this year, as the inventory of properties for sale came nowhere near to meeting surging demand. With policy makers all but promising record low, industry supportive interest rates to continue, we do not see this imbalance improving in the new year. The upward pressure on home prices will continue.

“There was a clear shift towards larger properties and single-family dwellings in 2020, as families repurposed homes to become their office, school classroom, gymnasium and restaurant during the pandemic,” Soper continued. “We expect this trend to moderate as life returns to normal in the months ahead. It is also worth noting, that Canada welcomed a new generation of first-time homeowners this year, encouraged by lower financing costs and softer demand for city centre condominiums. Urban living remains attractive for many.”

The value of single-family houses and homes outside of major urban markets are forecast to continue to outpace city core condominiums in the year ahead, driven both by Canadians seeking larger homes in a time where remote work has become more commonplace, and broad-based demographic trends, including baby-boomer retirement.

“Mega-trends that predate the pandemic are pushing home prices higher in secondary markets outside of our largest cities. Corporate Canada’s pandemic-driven move to work-from-home operations has simply accelerated relocation patterns already underway,” said Soper. “The huge baby-boomer demographic began post-children migration to suburban and recreational-style communities in the middle of the last decade, and material numbers of the equally populous millennial generation have been exiting city centre condos in search of space as they began families.”

Soper added that the trend of high demand outside of urban centres will slowly ease as listings in city centres become more competitive against growing prices in suburban and exurban markets.

Immigration is critical to the housing market both indirectly, as it is supportive of economic growth, as well as directly through housing demand. In October, the federal government announced its plan to add more than 1.2 million immigrants over three years, a significant jump from previous years. Previously published Royal LePage research[3] into this demographic shows that newcomers to Canada typically rent for three years before purchasing, after which they have a material impact on new household formation and overall housing demand. An increase in immigration is supportive of both the resale market and investment demand for rental condominiums.

Nationally, the condominium segment is expected to see healthy demand in most of Canada’s largest cities. A notable exception is the Greater Toronto Area where a softer condominium market began emerging in the second half of 2020. Within the region, modest price gains for larger units outside of the city centre is expected to continue to offset softer demand in the downtown core. With the return of international university student rental demand and newly arrived immigrants in the second half of 2021, demand for centrally located units should increase.

The concern regarding the impact of potential mortgage defaults related to mortgage deferrals during the summer has eased significantly, as many Canadians who deferred payments have begun repayment. According to CMHC, as of September 30, 2020, the organization’s entire insured book of business has 5 per cent of loans with a payment deferral in place; a decline from approximately 8 per cent in August.[4]

“The first half of 2021 will be something of an economic and social tug-o-war between advancing medical science and surging housing demand,” concluded Soper. “The real estate brokerage industry has developed protocols that allow us to safely sell property during the pandemic, yet some would-be sellers will remain cautious and not list their properties while high levels of COVID-19 transmission remain the norm, restricting available housing supply.”

Royal LePage 2021 Market Survey Forecast Price Table:

rlp.ca/rlp2021_forecast_table

MARKET SUMMARIES

Greater Toronto Area

In the Greater Toronto Area, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 5.75 per cent year-over-year to $990,300. During the same period, the median price of a standard two-storey home is expected to rise 7.5 per cent to $1,185,800, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 0.5 per cent to $600,800. The relatively flat median price projection for the condominium segment reflects a modest increase in median price for condominiums in the 905 area, offsetting a slight dip in median price for the City of Toronto.

“Single family homes remain in high demand. We expect lighter activity as we near the winter holidays but if inventory does not improve in early 2021, we could have another year of strong price appreciation,” said Debra Harris, vice president, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “Low inventory is expected to put upward pressure on prices but we could see low unit sales if there isn’t product to sell.”

Performance within the condominium segment is expected to remain varied with higher demand for larger units in the 905 area. Harris added that while there has been a recent surge in condominium listings, the historically starved Toronto condo market can withstand an increase in condo supply without significantly impacting price in the short term. With the federal government’s new and aggressive immigration targets as well as the expected return of rental demand from university students in the fall, resale demand for condominiums should be significantly higher in the second half of the year.

“Many young people returned home to save money during the pandemic and we expect them to want to get back into city life when the vaccine becomes available. The question is whether consumer confidence in the condo market will be healthy given the surge in listings. The reality is that current inventory is much healthier than where we were last year,” said Harris. “For the many young professionals who were discouraged by strong competition in the condo market in previous years, this window may be their opportunity to find a home they can get excited about living in.”

Greater Montreal Area

In the Greater Montreal Area, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 6.0 per cent year-over-year to $514,900. During the same period, the median price of a standard two-storey home is expected to rise 7.0 per cent to $656,200, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 3.75 per cent to $382,600.

“The pandemic has sparked our imagination in the sense that it’s given people the opportunity to take on real estate projects that would have been impossible without the option of remote work,” said Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president and general manager, Royal LePage Quebec. “Buying a property became the main objective of many households, and for some, the only way to get some fresh air during the pandemic. We expect demand will only ease when Canadians truly come out of lockdown, that is to say when travel and regular activities can resume.”

St-Pierre added that Montreal’s real estate market has proven to be surprisingly resilient in the face of 2020’s economic uncertainty and the effects of the global pandemic on urban lifestyle.

Despite the exodus of Montrealers to the suburbs over the course of the last several months, demand on the island for single-family homes, and some condominiums, has reached new heights. Well-priced properties are selling quickly, due to a lack of inventory and accumulated demand prompted by health and safety restrictions.

“In advance of upcoming mass distribution of the vaccine and a return to normal business activity, it is possible that prolonged safety restrictions and their impact on the precarious job market, could lead to an increase in mortgage defaults, which would inject inventory into the real estate market,” suggested St-Pierre. “However, pent-up demand has been so high in the Greater Montreal Area that such a boost in inventory would be insufficient to cool the market, as properties would be absorbed immediately.”

In 2021, Greater Montreal’s condominium market will vary from one neighbourhood to the next.

“Generally speaking, the number of condos for sale should continue to increase, especially in the downtown core, where prices could stabilize or even dip slightly in some cases, attracting first-time homebuyers who can take advantage of record low interest rates,” predicts St-Pierre. “Elsewhere in the region, condo prices could increase. One of the driving factors in condo demand will be the return of foreign students to the city centre, providing improved revenue for landlords who have seen rental prices shrink.”

Greater Vancouver

In Greater Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 9.0 per cent year-over-year to $1,262,600. During the same period, the median price of a standard two-storey home is expected to rise 10.0 per cent to $1,671,700, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 3.5 per cent to $684,300.

“I am confident we will continue to see prices rise next year. Vancouver has proven to be a rather resilient market, with high demand and quite low inventory,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “In March, we couldn’t have imagined this is where we’d be today, but despite public health concerns, consumer confidence remains high. With very attractive mortgage rates and the promise of a vaccine on the horizon, demand is likely to remain strong.”

Ryalls noted that the current market conditions create a tough situation for buyers, who are oftentimes competing for properties; something he expects is likely to continue through 2021.

“We are seeing multiple offers on almost every reasonably-priced detached listing. There simply isn’t enough inventory to meet the demand,” said Ryalls. “A balanced Vancouver market has about 15,000 active listings available. Right now, we’re sitting at roughly 10,000. If we reach the end of January without an injection of inventory, we will continue to see upward pressure on prices in the spring. I expect a strong seller’s market in 2021.”

Ryalls added that while the condominium market is not as strained as the single-family detached sector, demand remains strong.

Ottawa

In Ottawa, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 11.5 per cent year-over-year to $624,000. During the same period, the median price of a condominium is expected to increase 7.5 per cent to $417,900, while the median price for a two-storey detached home is forecast to rise 12.0 per cent to $656,300.

“Ottawa real estate continues to see high demand from Toronto buyers who are looking for less density and more outdoor spaces. Living in Ottawa gives you access to great schools and healthcare, a good job market and you can maintain a city lifestyle while affording a much larger home than what is offered in the GTA,” said Jason Ralph, managing partner, Royal LePage TEAM Realty. “Many local buyers struggled to find what they were looking for in 2020 due to low inventory. With their return to the market in the spring coupled with continued demand from the GTA, prices are forecast to rise significantly.”

Ralph added that while inventory is critical to a healthy spring market, demand is expected to continue to outpace supply.

“Ottawa has very low inventory across all housing types, and the single-family home market is especially competitive,” said Ralph. “We do not see inventory relief coming in the spring, which is expected to result in multiple offers and further price increases. However, despite price gains, Ottawa remains very affordable compared to capital cities internationally, as well as large urban centres in Canada.”

Calgary

In Calgary, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 0.75 per cent to $469,600 year-over-year. During the same period, the median price of a condominium is forecast to decrease 1.0 per cent to $258,000, while the median price of a two-storey detached home is forecast to rise 1.5 per cent to $514,800.

“Inventory for detached homes has not seen similar lows since 2001. Buyers are eager to get into the market, but they may have to broaden their search to find a good selection to choose from if they are looking for detached homes in popular neighbourhoods,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “While spring is expected to bring new inventory to the market, we are also anticipating a healthy level of demand from buyers, resulting in a balanced market.”

As a result of low interest rates, Lyall added that buyer demand has stabilized and the downturn in the oil market is promoting a more diversified economy. The federal government’s recent increase in immigration targets may spur the condo market, providing more price stability and a potential opportunity for price gains. The condominium market is expected to dip modestly in median price, however, high demand from entry-level buyers and single professionals will continue to absorb some oversupply.

Edmonton

In Edmonton, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 1.5 per cent year-over-year to $375,600. During the same period, the median price of a two-storey detached home is forecast to increase 1.5 per cent to $430,700, while the median price of a condominium is expected to rise 1.0 per cent to $215,100.

“In the second half of 2020, demand has outpaced supply and inventory is currently the lowest it’s been in five years. Some single-family homes are even attracting multiple offers and I expect to see the buyers who didn’t transact this fall, return in the spring. The question is whether the inventory will be there,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “In 2020, many sellers took their homes off the market due to their concerns regarding COVID-19. If we find ourselves again with a limited supply of houses on the market, prices will move upward.”

Shearer added the challenges that the Edmonton real estate market has faced in recent years have been absorbed into current pricing as sellers have now made their listings more competitive.

“There is excellent value in Edmonton,” added Shearer. “Homeownership is possible for most professionals, and young families can find detached properties in desirable neighbourhoods.”

Halifax

In Halifax, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 7.5 per cent year-over-year to $400,700. During the same period, the median price of a two-storey detached home is forecast to rise 9.0 per cent to $435,300, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 7.0 per cent to $322,300.

“The number of listings in Halifax is the lowest it has been in 16 years and demand is still strong. As remote work becomes more permanent, buyers are moving back to the Maritimes,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “Halifax will continue to be in high demand as buyers from outside of Atlantic Canada seek affordability and the Maritime lifestyle while easily accessing the best of the city. You can live on the outskirts of Halifax and be downtown in 15 minutes. It’s the best of both worlds.”

Honsberger says while current demand for condominiums is lower than detached homes, there are signals that demand for condos may increase in 2021.

“While international students make up a smaller percentage of condo renters and buyers than other Maritime cities, a return to pre-COVID demand will stimulate the condominium market as students are expected to return in autumn 2021,” said Honsberger. “The timing of new build projects has also been pushed out, which could dampen supply in the new year.”

Winnipeg

In Winnipeg, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 4.75 per cent year-over-year to $348,700. During the same period, the median price of a two-storey detached home is expected to rise 5.0 per cent to $401,600, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 1.25 per cent to $230,100.

“Approximately 95% of listings that were added to the market in November, sold. That’s unheard of in Winnipeg,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “Even with the increased COVID-19 restrictions, demand remains strong. Heading into the new year, there would have to be a significant rise in our seasonal supply of listings to meet it.”

Froese added that strong demand for homes in the outlying communities is expected to remain a trend in 2021, as companies and individuals continue to normalize remote work and buyers look for homes that fit their new needs. Homes and communities that offer these types of amenities are thriving as much space as possible for their dollar.

Regina

In Regina, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 2.75 per cent year-over-year to $335,600. During the same period, the median price of a two-storey detached home is forecast to increase 3.0 per cent to $417,400, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 1.5 per cent to $226,000.

“Low inventory continues to result in multiple offer scenarios as buyers seek larger homes. Consumer confidence is healthy and if we see a significant lift in inventory in the new year, we should have a brisk spring market” said Mike Duggleby, broker and owner, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “There is a high degree of uncertainty, but if current trends continue into 2021, there will be upward pressure on prices.”

Duggleby added that condominiums, after years of oversupply, are proving to be popular with investors who see current prices as below their value.

“Condominium investors have two streams of demand – university students and young immigrant families. If the Canadian government hits its newly revised immigration target and university students return in the fall, demand for condominiums will increase.”

About Kathy David Klune

November 2019 – Town of Fort Erie Housing Needs Study Reveals Need for Diversified Housing

The Town of Fort Erie has released is diversified housing needs report.  Please see more at:

https://forterie.civicweb.net/FileStorage/4B49A5938EC84067B0163E3E9755A0A4-PDS-63-2019%20Housing%20Needs%20Study%20Nov%2018.pdf

Contact us today for all your Real Estate needs.  Kathy & Dave – “Strength in Teamwork”.  See our blog for other interesting articles:  www.kathyanddave.ca

If you’re interested in learning more about the current housing market in the Niagara region, we would be happy to have a chat with you and answer any questions you may have. Come in for a visit or give us a call! It would be our pleasure to show you how selling your home in the current market could increase your financial gain.

Just Released: Royal LePage One in five homes purchased by Canadian newcomers

Royal LePage – One in five homes purchased by Canadian newcomers

    • Canadian newcomers projected to make 680,000 home purchases over next five years
    • 82% of newcomers choose to stay in their first city of residence
    • 75% of newcomers arrive with savings to help purchase a home
    • 75% of newcomers do not consider moving to the United States prior to arriving in Canada. Number one reason cited is newcomers feel more welcomed as immigrants

    Download Graph (.pdf)

    TORONTO, ON, October 16, 2019 –According to a survey commissioned by Royal LePage,[1] newcomers to Canada contribute significantly to real estate demand. Currently, newcomers represent one in every five home buyers (21%).[2] If the current international migration level is maintained,[3] Canadian newcomers are expected to purchase 680,000 homes over the next five years. In 2018, international migration accounted for 80.5 per cent of Canada’s population growth according to Statistics Canada.[4]

    “In addition to supporting Canada’s economic growth, newcomers to Canada are vital to the health of our national real estate market,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “The combined demand for affordable housing among younger Canadians and new Canadians can be met through housing policies that encourage smart and sustainable development, with a focus on protecting and developing green spaces in our urban centres. Canada’s economy and labour markets are expanding and it is crucial that housing supply keeps pace.”

    For this study, Royal LePage has defined newcomers as those who have moved to Canada within the last ten years. Respondents include immigrants, students, refugees and those who are in Canada to work. Nationally, the average duration of time respondents spent in Canada is four years.

    Newcomers are likely to be a family with children (31%), a student (25%) or a sole applicant (20%). Eighty-six per cent see real estate as a good investment and 75 per cent arrive with savings to help purchase a property. The study showed the average duration of time before newcomers purchase a home is three years after arriving in Canada.

    “It is not surprising that newcomers see a home in Canada as a good investment. Having lived abroad myself, I have seen first-hand the challenges of relocating a family to a new world. It takes courage and commitment. Newcomers are doing more than investing in Canadian real estate, they are investing in their family’s future,” said Soper.

    Despite the desire to purchase a home, the homeownership rate of newcomers is only 32 per cent. The overall homeownership rate for all Canadians is 68 per cent.[5] Of those who purchase a home, 51 per cent of newcomers buy a detached house, 18 per cent buy a condominium, 15 per cent buy a townhouse and 13 per cent buy a semi-detached house.

    Nationally, 82 per cent of respondents remain in the region of their first residence. For those who relocate to a new region, a better job is cited as the most popular reason for moving (41%), followed by lifestyle (13%), and housing affordability allowing the respondent to purchase a home (12%).

    Upon arriving in Canada, 64 per cent of respondents rent their first home and 15 per cent purchase. Many newcomers choose to first live with family or friends at little or no cost (18%).

    The most popular reason among respondents for moving to Canada is that newcomers see the country as a good place to live and work (54%). Most newcomers do not consider moving to the United States (75%) and the most popular response as to why they chose Canada over the United States was that they feel more welcomed as an immigrant (31%), followed by the belief that Canada is a safer place to live (26%).

    Regional Insights 

    ONTARIO 

    Ontario accounts for approximately 46 per cent of all international migration to Canada.[6] The homeownership rate of newcomers residing in the Greater Toronto Area and Ottawa are both 32 per cent. However, the provincial homeownership rate of newcomers is lower at 29 per cent, 3 percentage points lower than the national average (32%). The survey found that 84 per cent of newcomers in Ontario remain in their first city or region of residence. Currently newcomers in Ontario represent 21 per cent of all home buyers in the province[7] and they are projected to purchase 286,000 homes over the next five years at the current rate of migration.

    “Ontario, and more specifically the Greater Toronto Area, has greatly benefited from international migration to Canada,” said Chris Slightham, president, Royal LePage Signature Realty. “Neighbourhoods across the greater region are blossoming with the continued influx of newcomers who are looking for good schools and job opportunities in thriving communities. While some newcomers are attracted to downtown living, there are still many affordable housing options for newcomers in vibrant communities outside of the downtown core.”

    Newcomers to the province believe that homeownership is a good financial investment (88%) and 82 per cent arrive with savings to help purchase a home. The demand for detached homes in the province is driven by the number of newcomers who arrive as a family with children (32%). Of those who purchase a home, the average duration prior to purchasing is three years.

    “Ottawa is a very attractive destination for newcomers to Canada. Similar to Canada’s other urban centres, the city offers best-in-class healthcare, great schools and safe, friendly communities but with real estate prices roughly half of the cost of Toronto and a third the cost of Vancouver,” said Jason Ralph, managing partner, Royal LePage Team Realty in Ottawa. “The demand from both newcomers and first-time home buyers has put considerable upward price pressure on inventory between $300,000 and $500,000.”

    In the province, 60 per cent of newcomers rent their first home, 16 per cent purchase, and 20 per cent live with family or friends at little or no cost when they arrive in Canada.

    “The Greater Toronto Area population is growing as both newcomers and Canadians from outside of the region move to the city to live and work,” said Slightham. “This demand is creating upward pressure on our real estate market. We expect this momentum to continue as the GTA remains a desired world class destination.” 

    QUEBEC 

    Nationally, Quebec follows only Ontario in attracting newcomers to live and work (19%).[8] Currently newcomers also represent 19 per cent of all home buyers in the province[9] and they are projected to purchase 102,000 homes over the next five years at the current rate of international migration. The survey also found that 83 per cent of newcomers in Quebec still lived in their first region of residence.

    “Demand for real estate in the province of Quebec, and the Greater Montreal Area in particular, is healthy as newcomers settle here for our excellent academic institutions, great quality of life and relative affordability,” said Dominic St-Pierre, vice president and general manager, Royal LePage, for the Quebec region. “Quebec has a significant out-migration rate and its population continues to age. In addition to enriching the province’s social fabric, newcomers provide a population boost that supports both a healthy economy and vibrant real estate market.”

    Last July, the Institut de la Statistique du Québec stated in their forecast that the province’s population growth is expected to gradually slow.[10] The population growth from newcomers supports healthy demand for real estate.

    “With the labour shortage, many local businesses are recruiting abroad to fill positions,” says Dave Carter, co-owner and manager of Royal LePage Blanc & Noir in Quebec City. “Université Laval also attracts many international students who have the opportunity to pursue their careers here.”

    In the province, 71 per cent of newcomers rent their first home (the highest rate in the country tied with British Columbia), 10 per cent purchase and 14 per cent live with family or friends at little or no cost when they arrive in Canada.

    Despite real estate demand from the sheer volume of newcomers purchasing in the province, they have the lowest homeownership rate in the country, with only 25 per cent of newcomers living in the province of Quebec owning their home, compared to 61 per cent among the province’s total population.[11] When broken down at the city level, 23 per cent of those living in the Greater Montreal Area own their home compared to 28 per cent in Quebec City. Of those who purchase a home in the province, the average duration prior to purchasing is four years.

    “We are helping more and more newcomers in the process of purchasing property. The region offers an excellent quality of life and the vast majority of newcomers already speak French. The fact that the real estate market in Quebec City is affordable provides them with a better opportunity to achieve homeownership,” said Carter.

    Eighty-three per cent of newcomers in the province state that homeownership is a good financial investment and 67 per cent come to Canada with savings that allow them to purchase property, lower than the national average (75%).

    Provincial respondents are the least likely to consider moving to the United States before moving to Canada (17%). 

    BRITISH COLUMBIA 

    British Columbia is the third most popular Canadian destination for international migration.[12] The homeownership rate of newcomers residing in Greater Vancouver is 32 per cent, similar to both the provincial and national average (32%).

    “Greater Vancouver is one of the most desirable places in the world to live and we attract newcomers who are optimistic about what the city has to offer in terms of both lifestyle and employment,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty.

    In the province, 72 per cent of newcomers rent their first home and 9 per cent purchase, while 13 per cent live with family or friends at little or no cost when they arrive in Canada.

    “Newcomers are contributing to demand across housing types. Families are searching for houses in family-friendly communities while those coming as individuals are drawn to condos which provide a lower maintenance lifestyle in convenient locations at a more affordable price point,” said Ryalls.

    The percentage of respondents who arrive in British Columbia as part of a family with children is 32 per cent. The second most popular response is student (28%), followed by sole applicant (20%), and couples with no children (14%).

    Consumer confidence in the province’s real estate market is healthy as 85 per cent of respondents in British Columbia believe that homeownership is a good financial investment.

    Eighty-six per cent of newcomers in British Columbia remain in their first city or region of residence. Currently, newcomers represent 15 per cent of all home buyers in the province[13] and they are projected to purchase 91,000 homes over the next five years at the current rate of international migration.

    ALBERTA 

    Alberta attracts approximately 8 per cent of Canada’s international migration.[14] Alberta newcomers have a significantly high homeownership rate with 45 per cent owning their home. They are the most likely to believe that homeownership is a good financial investment (90%). Newcomers represent 18 per cent of all home buyers in the province[15] and they are projected to purchase 76,000 homes in the region over the next five years at the current rate of international migration.

    “Alberta is particularly appealing to newcomers from all over the world, and already established Canadians who wish to migrate to the province,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “Calgary has a truly welcoming attitude. It is a relatively young city so the majority of the population was not born here. There is a lot of support for newcomers, along with a real sense of community and love for the area.”

    Upon arriving in Canada, 19 per cent of Alberta newcomers own their first place of residence, 55 per cent rent, and 13 per cent live with family or friends at little or no cost.

    “Alberta supports entrepreneurs and people who are willing to work hard,” Lyall added. “The provincial government provides tax credits for small business investment and programs to help companies succeed on an international level. The lifestyle offered throughout the province, combined with the affordability of home prices, draws people to our part of Canada.”

    Similar to the rest of Canada, the largest group of respondents is families with children (34%), while 29 per cent come as sole applicants. The percentage of newcomers arriving as sole applicants is significantly higher than the national average (20%). Fifty-two per cent of Alberta respondents (the largest region by percentage) say they have children in their household under 18 years old.

    Of those who become a homeowner, the average duration prior to purchasing a home is three years for newcomers in Alberta. 

    PRAIRIES 

    Similar to Alberta, the Prairies also attract approximately 8 per cent of Canada’s international migration[16] and 41 per cent of newcomers own their home. In the province, 62 per cent of newcomers rent their first home, 20 per cent purchase and 17 per cent live with family or friends at little or no cost when they arrive in Canada.

    “Affordability reigns in this region of Canada,” said Michael Froese, managing partner, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “Newcomers come to the Prairies because the region can offer a great lifestyle on an affordable budget. It’s particularly appealing for newcomers who arrive as a family or those looking to start a family.”

    Newcomers represents 41 per cent of all home buyers in the region[17] and they are projected to purchase 71,000 homes over the next five years at the current rate of international migration. Of those who purchase a home, the average duration prior to purchasing is three years.

    Seventy-one per cent of newcomers in the Prairies still live in the region where they first resided. Similar to the national average, most newcomers in the Prairies arrive as a family with children (32%). Eighty-six per cent believe that homeownership is a good financial investment.

    “Newcomers who move to the Prairies put down roots here and quickly feel part of the community,” Froese added. “People stay for people.” 

    ATLANTIC CANADA 

    Atlantic Canada attracts approximately 5 per cent of Canada’s international migration.[18] Newcomers living in Atlantic Canada have a homeownership rate of 44 per cent, 12 percentage points higher than the national average (32%). Following the Prairies, it is the second highest percentage of all regions studied. Newcomers represent 31 per cent of all home buyers in the region[19] and they are projected to purchase 43,000 homes over the next five years.

    Newcomers in Atlantic Canada are most likely to be a family with children (39%), 8 percentage points higher than the national average.

    “Surrounded by water and beautiful landscape, Atlantic Canada is the perfect place to raise a family,” said Rudy Chong, owner and manager, Royal LePage Prince Edward Realty. “Many newcomers are thrilled to discover that they can own a large home at an affordable price. Often newcomers arrive from big, metropolitan cities and are seeking the lifestyle the Maritimes offers.”

    Of newcomers in Atlantic Canada, 81 per cent remain in their first city or region of residence. Eighty-eight per cent of respondents in Atlantic Canada believe that homeownership is a good financial investment.

    In the region, 63 per cent of newcomers rent their first home, 20 per cent purchase and 18 per cent live with family or friends at little or no cost when they arrive in Canada.

    Of newcomers who purchase a home, the average duration prior to buying is two years.

For more regional analysis, visit Royal LePage’s media room to find city-specific releases. The media room also contains royalty-free assets such as images and b-roll that are free for media use.

About Royal LePage                                    

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of more than 18,000 real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE.

Contact us today for all your Real Estate needs.  Kathy & Dave – “Strength in Teamwork”.  See our blog for other interesting articles:  www.kathyanddave.ca

If you’re interested in learning more about the current housing market in the Niagara region, we would be happy to have a chat with you and answer any questions you may have. Come in for a visit or give us a call! It would be our pleasure to show you how selling your home in the current market could increase your financial gain.

Just Released: Royal LePage Q3 2019 House Price Survey

Royal LePage CEO urges caution with election promises aimed at stimulating housing demand that lack concrete plans to address supply shortages

  • Housing recovery gains strength with national aggregate price forecast to rise 1.5% during the fourth quarter of 2019 compared to same period in 2018
  • Price gap between condominiums and houses shrinks as median condo price in the City of Toronto surpasses $600,000 mark
  • Montreal East posts highest home price appreciation rate in Canada’s largest urban centres, rising 8.5%
  • Lower prices in Greater Vancouver attract a new wave of home buyers, resulting in a spike in home sale volumes 

TORONTO, October 10, 2019 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey[1] released today, the aggregate price of a home in Canada has continued to post steady year-over-year gains during the third quarter of 2019 as the real estate market sustained its recovery from the significant downturn of 2018 and early 2019, following the introduction of the federal mortgage stress test.

“It is encouraging to see our political leaders devote thought and time to housing issues during the federal election,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “With the fastest growing population among advanced economies worldwide, providing adequate shelter for Canada’s rapid pace of household formation presents an economic opportunity and a social challenge.

“Careful stewardship of the real estate industry and its related financial sector is critical for the health of the country’s economy and the personal wealth of Canadian families,” Soper continued. “Well-intentioned election promises aimed at making housing more accessible and affordable to first-time buyers will fall flat if they trigger a surge in demand without a corresponding increase in the supply of homes. For example, lowering monthly mortgage payments by stretching repayment over a longer time period looks great on the surface, yet a surge in new buyers could cause prices to escalate, erasing the enhanced purchasing power.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite, compiled from proprietary property data in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets, showed that the median price of a home in Canada increased 1.4 per cent year-over-year to $630,335 in the third quarter of 2019. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 1.3 per cent year-over-year to $738,346, while the median price of a bungalow remained flat at $521,250. Nationally, condominiums remained the fastest appreciating housing type, with the median price rising 3.4 per cent year-over-year to $457,911. Data analyzed contains both resale and new build transactions, provided by Royal LePage’s sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions.

“Low interest rates and an outstanding employment picture continue to buoy consumer confidence and support our recovering real estate market,” said Soper. “The collateral damage from the trade war between the U.S. and China has been manageable to date. Barring a full-blown American recession, our outlook for Canada’s housing sector is for continued market expansion.”

Looking to the fourth quarter of 2019, Royal LePage forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will rise 1.5 per cent year-over-year to $632,226, which is a 0.3 per cent increase compared to the third quarter of 2019. The 2019 fourth quarter forecast is dependent on consistent economic conditions and no new housing policy changes.

Looking to regional real estate trends during the third quarter, condominiums, once affordable to most families and single professionals in the City of Toronto, have surpassed the $600,000 mark, rising to $618,391. As the price gap between condominiums and houses shrinks in the region, demand for detached properties has grown. The median price of a two-storey home in the city centre rose 5.5 per cent, signaling that buyer demand has largely absorbed the mortgage stress test hurdle to homeownership. In the fourth quarter, Royal LePage forecasts the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Areato be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter at $859,301, which is a 3.1 per cent increase over the fourth quarter of 2018.

While we predicted that the pace of home price appreciation in the Greater Montreal Area would slow down in the second half of 2019, the aggregate home price in the region remained strong, increasing 5.9 per cent year-over-year, well above the national rate. Bungalows in Montreal West posted the highest price appreciation across all housing types surveyed in the country, rising 12.2 per cent year-over-year to $447,663 while the aggregate price of home in Montreal East rose 8.5 per cent to $439,499 – the highest aggregate price increase among the largest urban centres nationwide. Significant price growth in Montreal East began to surface since the fourth quarter of 2018 as demand in the city core and lack of supply pushed buyers into the ends of the city. Overall demand in the region stems from buyers watching prices escalate and are looking for affordable properties. Another factor is strong consumer confidence as employment remains healthy and economic fundamentals remain positive. In the fourth quarter, the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area is forecast to increase 1.6 per cent quarter-over-quarter to $425,431, which is a 6.0 per cent increase over the fourth quarter of 2018, representing the highest price increase forecast in the country.

The Greater Vancouver real estate market continues to see year-over-year price declines, which has attracted considerable interest from buyers and spurred sales. The aggregate price of home in the region decreased 5.2 per cent year-over-year to $1,194,900. However, the quarterly trend shows that the rate of price decline has slowed and is expected to slow further as buyers see current prices as an opportunity to own property in one of Canada’s most beautiful and prosperous cities. In the third quarter, the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver decreased 0.8 per cent quarter-over-quarter, while the previous two quarters had quarterly decreases of 1.5 per cent (Q2 2019/Q1 2019) and 1.6 per cent (Q1 2019/Q4 2018). In the fourth quarter, the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver is forecast to decrease 0.4 per cent quarter-over-quarter to $1,190,120, which is a 5.5 per cent decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.

Home price appreciation in Ottawa remained at a healthy pace in the third quarter as the aggregate price of a home increased 3.7 per cent year-over-year to $481,948, a result of sustained demand from a growing technology sector. While the median price of a two-storey home and bungalow posted gains of 2.9 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively, the median price of a condominium dipped 0.9 per cent. The decline in the median price of a condominium reflects a lack of inventory in listings priced above entry-level. Both inventory and unit sales are expected to increase after the federal election. In the fourth quarter, the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa is forecast to increase 1.1 per cent quarter-over quarter to $487,249, which is a 3.7 per cent increase over the fourth quarter of 2018.

Commodity-driven real estate markets including CalgaryEdmontonReginaSaskatoon, and St. John’s posted year-over-year price declines. While the aggregate price of a home in Calgary decreased 4.3 per cent year-over-year to $464,542 in the third quarter, it rose 1.1 per cent over the previous quarter driven by appreciation in the two-storey detached house and bungalow segments. In the fourth quarter, the aggregate price of a home in Calgary is forecast to be flat at $465,007, which is a 2.4 per cent decrease over the fourth quarter of 2018.

In Atlantic Canada, Halifax’s low inventory and high demand have continued to put upward pressure on home prices. In the third quarter, the aggregate price of a home in the region rose 1.6 per cent year-over-year to $328,690. In the fourth quarter, the aggregate price of a home in Halifax is forecast to increase 3.7 per cent to $318,598 over the same period in 2018.

For more regional analysis, visit Royal LePage’s media room to find city-specific releases. The media room also contains royalty-free assets such as images and b-roll that are free for media use.

About Royal LePage                                    

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of more than 18,000 real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE.

Contact us today for all your Real Estate needs.  Kathy & Dave – “Strength in Teamwork”.  See our blog for other interesting articles:  www.kathyanddave.ca

If you’re interested in learning more about the current housing market in the Niagara region, we would be happy to have a chat with you and answer any questions you may have. Come in for a visit or give us a call! It would be our pleasure to show you how selling your home in the current market could increase your financial gain.

Canadian Real Estate Market Shows Signs of a Sustainable Recovery with Modest Price Gain of 1.1% in Second Quarter

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Canadian Real Estate Market Shows Signs of a Sustainable Recovery with Modest Price Gain of 1.1% in Second Quarter Nationally, home prices expected to rise modestly by 0.4% by the end of 2019 compared to 2018, driven by gains in Toronto and Montreal

      •  Nationally, home prices expected to rise modestly by 0.4% by the end of 2019 compared to 2018, driven by gains in Toronto and Montreal
      • Condominium prices in Vancouver decline for first time since third quarter of 2014
      • New federal government programs expected to have minimal impact on home prices

      TORONTO, July 10, 2019 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey[1] released today, low interest rates and healthy employment have offset the market drag caused by widespread economic uncertainty that has kept monthly unit sales volumes below the ten-year average[2]leading to very modest home price appreciation at the national level.

      The Royal LePage National House Price Composite, compiled from proprietary property data in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets, showed that the price of a home in Canada increased 1.1 per cent year-over-year to $621,696 in the second quarter of 2019. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 1.0 per cent year-over-year to $727,165, while the median price of a bungalow dipped 0.4 per cent year-over-year to $516,048. Condominiums remained the fastest growing housing type on a national basis, with its median price rising 3.8 per cent year-over-year to $452,451.

      “We now have evidence of a sustained market recovery in some of the nation’s largest markets, and signs of a price floor in other regions hit hard by the eighteen month-old housing correction,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Only in the West do we see a significant number of home buyers remaining on the sidelines, depressing sales volumes and causing prices to sag. Buoyed by supportive economic conditions, many stubborn homeowners in B.C. and Alberta remain unwilling to let their precious real estate go for less than what they perceive as fair value, which has gone a long way to protecting existing home values.”

      Canada’s economy continues to grow, albeit at an unexceptional pace, with a slumping housing market being a major contributor to the slowdown. Offsetting this, business investment has picked up considerably, helping to sustain a period of exceptional employment growth, particularly in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

      Trade tension continues to weigh on consumer confidence and housing market health. A recent detente in Chinese-American relations, and a stronger than expected mid-year employment picture has muted some of the U.S. recession talk. While a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is still a possibility, a similar move by the Bank of Canada is less likely. Lower rates south of the border and a stronger American economy would have positive implications for exports and Canadian consumer and business confidence.

      Said Soper, “Don’t misinterpret rate cut expectations south of the border as rate cut likelihood in Canada. We have related but independent economies and monetary policy.”

      Looking ahead to the end of the year, Royal LePage expects national home prices to see a modest uptick, rising 0.4 per cent compared to the end of 2018. The Greater Toronto Area and Greater Montreal Area are expected to continue to drive national home price gains with forecast increases of 1.4 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively, while Ottawa is expected to outpace the GTA with a projected price increase of 1.6 per cent by year-end. Weakness in the Greater Vancouver market is expected to continue, with the aggregate home price forecast to decrease by 5.5 per cent compared to end of year 2018. Other Western cities are also expected to decline, with home prices in Calgary, Edmonton, and Regina expected to decrease 3.6 per cent, 3.0 per cent, and 4.9 per cent respectively.

      The enhanced housing affordability measures introduced in the federal budget in March are not expected to have a significant effect on home prices. The increase in the registered retirement savings plan withdrawal limit to $35,000 from $25,000 has been in effect since it was announced. The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive – a three-year, $1.25 billion shared equity mortgage program whereby the Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corporation (CMHC) will co-invest up to five per cent of the purchase price of an existing home – is expected to begin in September.  The program is expected to help young Canadians afford a first home closer to urban centres.

      “Overall, the new government programs should be supportive of the housing market, but their impact on home price appreciation will likely be minor – and that’s a good thing,” said Soper. “Heavy-handed policy intervention can cause artificial spikes or drops in home prices. What it doesn’t do is change the need for shelter; it just stokes price inflation and housing shortages, or market slumps and dangerous pent-up demand.”

      Once again, home price appreciation in Ontario cities heavily influenced the national results in the second quarter of 2019, driven by pent-up demand from a sluggish first quarter, a strong job market, and an influx of new residents into the GTA.

      “The market in the GTA began to tighten this spring, as sales outstripped new listings,” said Soper. “In the City of Toronto, prices rose above inflation across all housing types, led once again by strength in the condo market. But the most encouraging signs came from the suburbs, where areas that saw the most significant price corrections such as Oshawa and Richmond Hill started to rebound.”

      The aggregate home price in the City of Toronto rose 4.3 per cent year-over-year in the second quarter of 2019. Two-storey home prices and bungalow home prices rose 2.8 per cent and 2.4 per cent year-over-year, respectively, while condo prices rose a significant 7.9 per cent year-over-year. Overall, the GTA’s aggregate home price rose 2.6 per cent over the same period.

      Ottawa saw home prices rise by 6.2 per cent year-over-year although the region is expected to see a more modest but healthy gain of 1.6 per cent for the full year of 2019 compared to the end of 2018. Residential price appreciation in Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe region slowed from recent rapid price gains. Aggregate prices in Niagara/St. Catharine and Kitchener/Waterloo/Cambridge were up by 3.2 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, while prices in Hamilton decreased 0.9 per cent year-over-year. Other notable median price increases for Ontario cities include Kingston at 6.9 per cent year-over-year. In western Ontario, London and Windsor both experienced some of the strongest home price appreciation in the country, with median prices rising 9.5 per cent and 8.8 per cent year-over-year, respectively.

      In Quebec, the Greater Montreal Area remained one of the strongest markets in the country in the second quarter of 2019, with the aggregate price of a home increasing 5.8 per cent year-over-year to $410,828. The rate of home price appreciation in the Greater Montreal Area once again surpassed rates seen in the GTA (2.6%), Greater Vancouver (-4.1%) and the national average (1.1%).

      “We forecast that the Montreal real estate market would begin to see more modest home price appreciation after robust growth last year, but the quarter-over-quarter increases are showing that the pace of growth in the area is not slowing,” said Soper. “Despite the strength of the Greater Montreal Area for the past three years, the city’s prices remain one third of Greater Vancouver and half of those in the Greater Toronto Area. At Montreal’s current home price growth rate, it would take 13 and 19 years respectively for Montreal home prices to catch up to Toronto and Vancouver.”

      In British Columbia, government intervention continues to weigh on the housing market despite strong economic fundamentals. Home prices in Greater Vancouver declined for the second straight quarter on year-over-year basis, with the aggregate price falling 4.1 per cent in the second quarter to $1,208,674. The correction that started in the City of Vancouver has spread across the region with prices in Burnaby, Langley, and Richmond falling 7.3 per cent, 4.4 per cent, and 4.1 per cent, respectively.

      “The slowdown that initially began in the British Columbia lower mainland’s most expensive trading areas, Vancouver and the region’s North Shore, has moved to the relatively affordable suburbs, as the policy-driven housing downturn nears the three-year mark,” said Soper. “Home price trends lag behind changes in home sales activity. With one of the strongest economies in the country, I would expect the recovery in sales volumes to begin this fall, with a slow recovery in home prices to follow. Other regions in the province such as Kelowna and Victoria have held up reasonably well so far.”

      With sales still well below the ten-year average and new listings increasing, properties in the region’s most expensive markets like West Vancouver, North Vancouver, and the City of Vancouver were also hard hit, decreasing 7.6 per cent, 4.2 per cent, and 4.7 per cent year-over-year, respectively.

      With an unemployment rate of 6.6 per cent as of June and personal insolvencies rising, the Alberta economy continues to lag, though a slight bump in employment is predicted in 2020. The aggregate price of a home in Calgary, Edmonton, and Fort McMurray fell 5.0 per cent, 0.9 per cent, and 0.1 per cent year-over-year to $460,089, $371,106 and $567,312, respectively. Prices were relatively stable on a quarter-over-quarter basis, and there is a possibility that the approval of the Trans Mountain Pipeline extension will spur an increase in consumer confidence.

      Outside of Newfoundland, Atlantic Canada is benefitting from increased immigration and the relative economic weakness in Alberta. The aggregate price of a home in Charlottetown rose 3.0 per cent to $295,699. Halifax continued to see strong demand with prices rising across all housing types. The aggregate price of a home in the city rose 3.4 per cent to $328,023. The picture was mixed in New Brunswick, where aggregate prices in Fredericton and Saint John rose 2.5 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively, while Moncton lagged behind with the aggregate price of a home decreasing 0.7 per cent.

About Royal LePage                                    

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of more than 18,000 real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE.

Contact us today for all your Real Estate needs.  Kathy & Dave – “Strength in Teamwork”.  See our blog for other interesting articles:  www.kathyanddave.ca

If you’re interested in learning more about the current housing market in the Niagara region, we would be happy to have a chat with you and answer any questions you may have. Come in for a visit or give us a call! It would be our pleasure to show you how selling your home in the current market could increase your financial gain.

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Royal LePage Canadian Recreational Property Prices Forecast to Rise 4.7%

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Canadian Recreational Property Prices Forecast to Rise 4.7%

  • Low inventory results in 7.2 per cent price gain in Ontario’s cottage country
  • Despite spring flooding in Quebec, prices are projected to remain strong (5.6%)
  • Prices in British Columbia’s soft recreational property market forecast to remain stable while sales continue to decline

TORONTO, June 6, 2019 –Recreational property in Canada saw healthy price gains leading up to the 2019 spring market, rising 5.0 per cent to $411,471 compared to the previous year.[1] Royal LePage is forecasting another year of solid gains (4.7%) as high demand in Ontario and Quebec continue to put upward pressure on prices, offsetting softer market conditions in British Columbia. Low inventory in Ontario and weak demand in British Columbia were the primary drivers of a decline in Canadian recreational property sales (-8.3%).

In most of the country, young families are competing with baby boomers for homes in popular recreational property regions.

“With the youngest baby boomers a decade away from retirement, and their older peers well on their way, we are seeing robust demand for cottage, cabin and chalet-style retirement properties,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage.

“Young families have traditionally made up a significant portion of the demand for recreational property, as they look to create a special place for children to grow up,” Soper continued.  “Today they find themselves having to compete with their parents for that spot on the water, with boomers leveraging the significant equity from their existing urban homes. In Ontario and Quebec, this has resulted in exceptional demand and upward pressure on prices. In Western Canada, it has supported demand and stabilized prices.”

Both Ontario and Alberta saw greater aggregate price increases than other provinces, rising 7.2 and 10.2 per cent, respectively. Alberta’s increase was largely due to an 11.4 per cent pickup in the larger market of Canmore, with mostly healthy single digit gains elsewhere in the province.

Royal LePage forecasts the aggregate price of a single-family home in recreational regions in Canada to increase by 4.7 per cent by spring 2020, rising from $411,471 to $429,714.[2]

Most provinces witnessed a year-over-year decline in recreational property sales. While a lack of inventory to meet demand resulted in a sales decline in Ontario, British Columbia’s sluggish sales mirrored trends in the province’s residential real estate market. The exception was Quebec, which experienced a 6.3 per cent year-over-year sales increase in single-family properties in reporting recreational communities as supply met demand. 

Regional Summaries 

Atlantic Canada

Buyers looking to Atlantic Canada to purchase a recreational property can expect to find good selection this spring at affordable price points. Over the past year, the aggregate price of a single-family home in reporting recreational regions rose 5.9 per cent to $257,965 compared to the year prior. Waterfront recreational properties in the region are among the most affordable in Canada, with the median price for a waterfront single-family home sitting at $363,335.

“The affordability in the Atlantic region, particularly Halifax, continues to draw Canadians to the area for both recreation and retirement,” stated Marc Doucet, broker of record, Royal LePage Atlantic. “You’d be hard-pressed to find as much variety of recreational homes and unique landscapes.”

Royal LePage is expecting home prices in recreational regions to be stable over the next twelve months. The aggregate price of a single-family home is forecast to rise 0.7 per cent over the next year to $259,671. 

Quebec

Both sales and prices were up in the province’s recreational regions, reflecting the overall health of the economy. The aggregate price for a single-family home in the province’s reporting recreational regions rose 4.5 per cent to $194,315. With a good supply of inventory to meet demand, sales increased 6.3 per cent, well above the national average, which decreased 8.3 per cent.

“Quebecers are benefitting from one of the healthiest economies in the country right now and are confident investing in real estate and long term projects, including recreational property,” explained Dominic St-Pierre, vice president and general manager, Royal LePage, for the Quebec region.

Despite the floods that affected several regions in the province this spring, demand for recreational properties is expected to remain strong, with experts forecasting a 4.4 per cent increase in sales activity over the next twelve months. Over the same period, Royal LePage is forecasting the aggregate price of a single-family home in the province’s recreational region to rise 5.6 per cent to $205,148.

“The increase in sales activity is driven by Quebec’s job market strength, where the unemployment rate in April sat below 5 per cent for the first time since 1976. Salaries continue to rise in the province due to full employment, providing further consumer confidence,” said St-Pierre. “We are also noticing a surge of buyers between the ages of 40 and 60 looking to enjoy the cottage lifestyle and spend more time with the family.”

Ontario

Although sales are down 7.9 per cent among reporting recreational regions across the province, the aggregate price for a single-family home rose 7.2 per cent to $393,253. The reason most often cited by Royal LePage recreational property experts for the price increase is low inventory, as retirees compete with young families looking to get away from the city.

“In Muskoka, we are seeing people in their 50s and 60s cashing out with significant amounts of money, as well as those who are coming into money and want to get out of the rat race,” said Bob Clarke, sales representative, Royal LePage Lakes of Muskoka. “A 300-foot lot on southern Lake Joe once would be about $1.6 million. Now, if I found one west-facing it would likely be $3.0 million. That puts pressure on 100- and 200-foot lots.”

Demand is high in the province and buyers have not been put off by late spring weather, rain or even flooding. Royal LePage is expecting the aggregate price of a single-family home in the province’s recreational regions to rise a further 8.0 per cent over the next twelve months, rising to $424,905. 

The Prairies

Reporting recreational property regions in the Prairies saw softening in both prices and sales over the past year as the aggregate price for a single-family home decreased 6.3 per cent year-over-year to $194,147 and sales dipped 3.4 per cent during the same period. Royal LePage recreational property experts cited the region’s soft economy, which has limited families’ ability to purchase secondary properties, as the primary driver for the decline in both sales and prices.

In Saskatchewan’s popular Christopher Lake, Emma Lake and Candle Lake, the median price of a single-family home decreased 11.7 per cent compared to last year.

“We’ve had an economic downturn in our region, and this has affected lake properties. We are seeing fewer listings, which is creating some balance despite the slowdown in sales,” said Lou Doderai, owner and broker, Royal LePage Icon Realty. “Properties are selling but sellers are waiting a little longer.”

In Manitoba’s Interlake Area, both single-family home prices and sales have remained stable compared to last year as prices remained flat while sales dipped 1.8 per cent.

“Good affordability and proximity to Winnipeg has sustained demand and supported home prices in the region,” said Tyler Bucklaschuk, sales representative and broker, Royal LePage JMB & Associates. “Buyers are seeking access to beautiful lakes while still getting good internet reception and other conveniences. It’s the best of both worlds.”

Royal LePage forecasts single-family home prices in the Prairies’ recreational regions to decrease a further 3.1 per cent to $188,101 over the next year. However, softening prices are expected to spur some activity, and sales may increase over 2.0 per cent for the same period. 

Alberta

Driven by price gains in Canmore, the largest reporting region in Alberta, the aggregate price of a single-family home in recreational regions rose 10.2 per cent to $819,583. The aggregate price in the province is expected to increase 2.4 per cent in 2020.

Although sales in Canmore were flat compared to the same period last year, the median price of a single-family home in the region increased 11.4 per cent year-over-year to $930,000.

“We are seeing good demand in most segments of the market, including retirement, local, and recreational,” said Brad Hawker, broker and owner, Royal LePage Rocky Mountain Realty. “While most buyers already know about the year-round recreational activities and lifestyle, many are surprised to find the area with so many cultural opportunities and how incredibly welcoming Canmore is for new residents of all ages.”

While Canmore saw the largest year-over-year price gains, single-family homes in other reporting regions saw healthy single-digit gains. 

British Columbia

Recreational property in British Columbia is showing significant softening compared to last year as sales decreased 22.5 per cent in reporting recreational regions and all regions posting a decrease. While the aggregate price of a single-family home is relatively flat (0.4%) compared to last year, Royal LePage recreational property experts in the region are citing reduced sales volumes in the lower end of the market skewing the median price upwards. Over the next year, the aggregate price is forecast to increase an additional 1.7 per cent in 2020.

“While demand has softened across the recreational property market, low inventory has kept prices stable,” said Gregg Hart, broker and owner of  Royal LePage In The Comox Valley. “Mt. Washington had a good snow year and sales on the mountain were well ahead of last year. The inventory on both Denman and Hornby Island is very low, which is pushing prices higher just as the selling season gets going.”

Hart added that there is a good selection of waterfront properties currently on the market in the Valley and most of the buyers have been from the Lower Mainland.

The most popular region for buyers in British Columbia is the central Okanagan region where the median price for a single-family home decreased 3.0 per cent to $640,000 compared to last year.

“While sales are down, buyers from Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Vancouver are still active in the Okanagan region,” stated Mark Walker, sales representative, Royal LePage Kelowna. “Despite a slowdown in the Alberta economy, there are some positives that help offset the challenges we see. Our population is growing, as is the tech sector. And it’s beautiful here.” 

About Royal LePage                                    

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of more than 18,000 real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE.

Contact us today for all your Real Estate needs.  Kathy & Dave – “Strength in Teamwork”.  See our blog for other interesting articles:  www.kathyanddave.ca

If you’re interested in learning more about the current housing market in the Niagara region, we would be happy to have a chat with you and answer any questions you may have. Come in for a visit or give us a call! It would be our pleasure to show you how selling your home in the current market could increase your financial gain.

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Royal LePage Most Canadian First-Time Home Buyers Anxious They Will Miss Out Because of an Insufficient Down Payment

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Most Canadian First-Time Home Buyers Anxious They Will Miss Out Because of an Insufficient Down Payment

  • While Vancouver has higher home prices, first-time home buyers in Montreal are more worriedabout their down payment (58% vs. 60%)
  • First-time home buyers in Toronto had the highest anxiety that theirdown payment would not stretch enough to buy the home they wanted (68%)
  • Of first-time home buyers who lived with their parents before buying, almost one-fifth said that remaining at home delayed parents’ decision to downsize
  • Despite higher median home values, Toronto (59%) and Vancouver (54%) respondents are most likely to prefer proximity to work over square footage than new home buyers in other regions studied

TORONTO, May 9,2019 – A survey[1] released by Genworth Canada, the country’s largest private residential mortgage insurer, in collaboration with Royal LePage, Canada’s leading real estate services provider, analyzed key trends among first-time home buyers who purchased a home within the last two years. 

Fifty-seven per cent of respondents nationwide said that before buying their home they worried they might miss out on a property they wanted because of an insufficient down payment. While Montreal’s median home price is one third of that in Vancouver, respondents in Montreal reported being more worried (60%) than respondents in Vancouver (58%). Toronto respondents had the most anxiety (68%)[2].

“While interest rates remain historically low, it is not surprising that first-time home buyers in Montreal are increasingly concerned about their down payment,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage. “Montrealers have been watching home values escalate over the past three years. Many are wondering if they have time to grow their down payment or if they should get in the market now as prices continue to rise.”

When asked to describe their housing situation before purchasing a first home, 25 per cent of respondents nationwide lived with parents or relatives. Forty-three per cent of those living at home paid rent to their families and of those paying rent, 30 per cent paid less than the market value.

One-fifth of respondents who lived with family said that living at home delayed their parents’ own decision to downsize (17%), while a further 15 per cent said that younger siblings would have to leave the nest before parents can downsize. Sixty-four per cent said their parents had no plans of downsizing when they become empty nesters. These results support findings in Royal LePage’s 2018 Baby Boomer release that revealed although many Boomers still have children living at home, 17 per cent of them are expected to purchase a property by 2023, representing 1.4 million potential buyers and sellers.

As affordability continues to challenge many first-time home buyers across Canada, 48 per cent of respondents would rather have a smaller home and live close to work, compared to 32 per cent who value larger properties despite a longer commute. Findings were similar in Calgary and Montreal, where 53 and 52 per cent of first-time home buyers also preferred less time commuting between home and work.

While Toronto and Vancouver are home to some of the highest home prices in the country, the majority of those surveyed in both cities responded that proximity to work was more valued than square footage (59% and 54%, respectively). This may be influenced by longer work commutes, with Toronto and Vancouver residents reporting 34 minute and 30 minute one-way travel times both to/from work.[3]

“Even in cities where first-time home buyers have to push themselves to get on the property ladder, cost isn’t the only consideration when buying a first home,” said Soper. “While some young people are relocating to more affordable cities, those who stay value shorter commutes and access to the benefits of city life.”

Regional Insights

ONTARIO

Sixty per cent of respondents in Ontario expressed anxiety about their down payment stretching enough to get the home they wanted, compared to 68 per cent of respondents in Toronto.

“Buying a property can be stressful for anyone, but for first-time home buyers, the anxiety is magnified by the unknowns,” said Caroline Baile, broker, Royal LePage Your Community Realty. “A good starting place is to define your wishlist and focus on your priorities.”

Shorter commutes were valued more than square footage in Toronto as 59 per cent of respondents in the region preferred a more expensive and smaller home located closer to where they or their spouse work — the highest regional percentage in Canada.

“There is a large portion of first-time home buyers in Toronto who will sacrifice size for location. Time is important — as are childcare, schools, and proximity to work,” said Baile. “Sometimes that means purchasing a condo in the city within walking distance of work, or even living with parents a little longer to position themselves better to get the home they want.”

Thirty per cent of respondents in Ontario and 34 per cent in Toronto lived with parents or other relatives before buying their first home, surpassing the national average (25%).

QUEBEC

Fifty-one per cent of respondents in Quebec (excluding Montreal) expressed anxiety about their down payment stretching enough to get the home they wanted, compared to 60 per cent of respondents in Montreal.

“While those who live in other parts of the province have the convenience of time and can shop around, we are seeing that first-time home buyers in Montreal are feeling the pressure to make quick decisions to enter the market,” said Dominic St-Pierre, vice president and general manager, Royal LePage, for the Quebec region. “Low inventory and high demand have encouraged an increase of multiple offers in the city in favour of more experienced buyers. First-time home buyers have to be prepared and secure financing prior to making an offer, with a sufficient down payment and mortgage pre-approval if they are serious about a purchase.”

Nearly one quarter of Montrealers (23%) lived with family prior to buying their first home, compared to 16 per cent elsewhere in Quebec. Compared to the rest of the country, Quebec is the province with the most significant gap between the largest urban centre compared to the rest of the province when it comes to first-time buyers paying rent to their parents before purchasing their own home. Seventy-four per cent of respondents in Montreal said they did not pay rent to their family or relatives compared to only 53 per cent of Quebecers (outside Montreal).

BRITISH COLUMBIA

Fifty-six per cent of respondents in British Columbia expressed anxiety about their down payment stretching enough to get the home they wanted, compared to 58 per cent of respondents in Vancouver.

“Early generational wealth transfer from downsizing Baby Boomers has given a financial boost to first-time home buyers,” said Adil Dinani, real estate advisor, Royal LePage West. “Despite some softening in prices, first-time home buyers are optimistic about the long term health of the region’s real estate market.”

Twenty-seven per cent of respondents in British Columbia lived with family before buying a home. Fifty-eight per cent of those living at home paid rent to relatives, and of those paying rent, 45 per cent paid below market rates.

Of the respondents who lived at home before buying, 14 per cent said that living at home delayed their parents’ decision to downsize.

Forty-six per cent of respondents in B.C. chose to buy a more expensive, smaller home located close to where they/their spouse worked compared to 54 per cent of respondents in Vancouver.

“There will always be an attraction to buy in the city centre. In Greater Vancouver, there are newly-developed urban amenities and transportation infrastructure that increase the desirability of homes outside the core,” said Dinani. “These high density hubs create opportunities for people who are new to the market; they can embrace urban living with more space and connection to transit.”

ALBERTA

Forty-nine percent of respondents in Calgary expressed anxiety about their down payment to get the home they wanted, compared to 62 per cent elsewhere in Alberta.

Among Calgarians living with family before buying a home, 47 per cent said their parents did not have plans to later downsize. Twenty per cent of respondents said staying in the home did delay their parents’ decision to downsize while 31 per cent indicated they had siblings who would need to move before parents could downsize.

“There’s definitely more opportunity in Calgary,” says Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “You have a larger population of younger people who are very career-focused, with more buying ability. There are also a number of Baby Boomers who are in a position to help their millennial children purchase their first home.”

Forty-two per cent of those surveyed in Calgary said their home location represents a similar commute for both spouses/partners, representing the highest percentage compared to other regions. The national average is 36 per cent.

ATLANTIC CANADA

The Atlantic Canada region bucks the trend for anxiety in relation to their down payment. Fifty-four per cent of those surveyed said they were not worried about their down payment compared to 41 per cent nationally.

“Home prices are not outside the reach of younger Canadians in Atlantic Canada. We still see buyers getting help from ‘the bank of Mom and Dad’ but there’s fantastic affordability and opportunity here,” said Marc Doucet, broker of record, Royal LePage Atlantic.

Seventy-four per cent of those surveyed in Atlantic Canada rented before purchasing their first home. Twenty per cent of respondents in Atlantic Canada lived with family before buying a home; 54 per cent paid rent to relatives, while 17 per cent paid market rates. Among those respondents who lived at home before buying, 20 per cent reported their parents delayed plans to downsize until the respondents moved out of the family home.

PRAIRIES

Fifty-seven per cent of first-time home buyers in the Prairie provinces were worried about their ability to get the home they wanted with their down payment.

When it came to proximity to work, 39 per cent of respondents in Manitoba and Saskatchewan preferred a relatively more expensive, smaller home in exchange for a shorter commute.

“Where you live dictates how you live,” offered Michael Froese, broker and managing partner, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “A lot of first-time home buyers are looking at their purchase not just as a home, but as an investment as well. When it comes to resale value, choosing a good neighbourhood is part of the decision. You can always improve the house; you can’t change the location. Good advice for new home owners is to budget for some renovation and repairs.”

Among those living with family before buying a home, 71 per cent said their parents did not have plans to later downsize. Thirteen per cent of respondents said staying in the home did delay their parents’ decision to downsize while 7 per cent indicated they had siblings who would need to move before parents could downsize.

Thirty-six per cent of respondents in the Prairies paid rent to families at below market rates before purchasing their own home, slightly higher than the national average of 30 per cent.

 

Need an image or b-roll? Visit Royal LePage’s media room for a selection of branded and unbranded royalty-free assets.  

About the Survey

A total of 1,893 interviews were conducted by Environics Research with Canadians aged 25-40 who had purchased their first home within the prior two years. Online interviewing was completed between February 15 and March 15, 2019. Quotas were set to oversample in urban regions with weighting to bring them back into overall national proportions for reporting.

About Genworth MI Canada Inc.

Genworth MI Canada Inc. (TSX: MIC) through its subsidiary, Genworth Financial Mortgage Insurance Company Canada (“Genworth Canada”), is the largest private residential mortgage insurer in Canada. The Company provides mortgage default insurance to Canadian residential mortgage lenders, making homeownership more accessible to first-time home buyers. Genworth Canada differentiates itself through customer service excellence, innovative processing technology, and a robust risk management framework. For more than two decades, Genworth Canada has supported the housing market by providing thought leadership and a focus on the safety and soundness of the mortgage finance system. As at December 31, 2018, Genworth Canada had $6.9 billion total assets and $4.1 billion shareholders’ equity. Find out more at www.genworth.ca.

About Royal LePage                                    

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of more than 18,000 real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE.

For more information visit: www.royallepage.ca.

 

For further information, please contact:

Angela Pinzon
Kaiser Lachance Communications
647.295.0517
angela.pinzon@kaiserlachance.com

 


[1] The survey was conducted between February 15, 2019 to March 15, 2019 by Environics Research, a premier marketing and analytics company in North America.

[2] According to Q1 2019 Royal LePage House Price Survey, the aggregate price of a home in Greater Montreal Area is $406,332, while the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver is $1,239,306.

[3] Statistics Canada “Average one-way commuting duration (in minutes),” census metropolitan areas, 2016

About Royal LePage                                    

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of more than 18,000 real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE.

Contact us today for all your Real Estate needs.  Kathy & Dave – “Strength in Teamwork”.  See our blog for other interesting articles:  www.kathyanddave.ca

If you’re interested in learning more about the current housing market in the Niagara region, we would be happy to have a chat with you and answer any questions you may have. Come in for a visit or give us a call! It would be our pleasure to show you how selling your home in the current market could increase your financial gain.

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Royal LePage Sluggish Start to 2019 Provides Silver Lining for First-time Home Buyers in the Country’s Largest Cities

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Sluggish Start to 2019 Provides Silver Lining for First-time Home Buyers in the Country’s Largest Cities

  • National home price growth slowed to 2.7 per cent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2019
  • Home prices in western Canada forecast to decline
  • Price growth in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) remains steady, supported by low inventory
  • Slowdown in Greater Vancouver driven by policy changes
  • Greater Montreal Area home price growth continues to outpace the GTA and Greater Vancouver
  • Ottawa home prices inch ahead of Calgary for the first time

TORONTO, April 4, 2019 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey[1] released today, Canada’s residential real estate market showed slowing year-over-year price growth in the first quarter of 2019.

Early in 2018, Canada experienced the most significant housing correction since the 2008 financial crisis. Markets showed signs of recovery late in the year, yet the figures for early 2019 suggest that the market has once again slowed.

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite, compiled from proprietary property data in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets, showed that the price of a home in Canada increased just 2.7 per cent year-over-year to $621,575 in the first quarter of 2019, well below the long-term norm of approximately 5 per cent. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 2.6 per cent year-over-year to $729,553, while the median price of a bungalow rose 1.1 per cent year-over-year to $513,497. Condominiums remained the fastest growing housing type on a national basis, rising 5.4 per cent year-over-year to $447,260.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, Royal LePage expects national home prices to stay relatively flat throughout the 2019 spring market, with the national aggregate price of a home increasing 1.0 per cent over the next three months. Meanwhile, the housing markets in several larger Canadian cities have shown noticeable signs of slowing, with nearly half of the regions in Royal LePage’s Quarterly Forecast[2] anticipating quarter-over-quarter price declines. Notably, Royal LePage is expecting home prices in Greater Vancouver to fall 1.4 per cent over the next quarter. Ottawa is expected to post the highest price appreciation during the spring market and is forecast to rise 2.8 per cent to $482,459 during the second quarter.

“We are expecting this to be a sluggish year overall in Canada’s residential real estate market, with the hangover from the 2018 market correction and weaker economic growth acting as a drag on home price appreciation, balanced by lower for longer interest rates,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “There is a silver lining here. This slowdown gives buyers, and first-time buyers in particular, an opportunity to buy real estate in our country’s largest cities.”

The global economy hit a soft spot entering the new year. The economic downturns in China and Germany, ongoing trade disputes, and slowing U.S. growth support a relatively muted global outlook. The upside for the Canadian housing market is the increased likelihood that interest rate hikes are on hold for the foreseeable future.

“Canada is certainly affected by negative global macroeconomic trends, yet full-time job creation in our country is very strong, and full-time employment turns renters into buyers,” said Soper. “The medium-term outlook for housing remains very positive.”

In the federal budget tabled by Finance Minister Bill Morneau in March, the Canadian government announced three new or enhanced housing programs. The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive is a three-year, $1.25 billion shared equity mortgage program whereby the Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corporation (CMHC) will co-invest up to five per cent of the purchase price of an existing home. Further, for the first time in a decade, there was an increase in the registered retirement savings plan withdrawal limits in the Home Buyers Plan. The increase, from $25,000 to $35,000, was the largest since the program’s inception in 1992. Finally, an additional $10 billion in financing over nine years was earmarked for the construction of purpose-built rental housing.

“Like many government initiatives, the new housing programs have supporters and critics,” said Soper. “Prospective home buyers and the hundreds of thousands of Canadians who directly or indirectly earn their living from real estate activity should remember that there were many policy areas competing for attention. In 2019, housing captured the attention and support of federal lawmakers, which is a welcome and necessary development.

Some critics believe that the narrowly focused federal housing initiatives will overstimulate already expensive markets. We disagree. Eroding affordability risks taking the dream of homeownership away from young Canadian families,” said Soper. “Without a healthy influx of first-time buyers, the entire cycle of real estate activity can stall. There is the chance, however, that activity levels in the spring of 2019 will be reduced as some delay purchases, waiting for the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive to kick-in.”

Driven by supply-side shortages, and augmented by an improving job market, home price appreciation in Ontario heavily influenced the national results in the first quarter of 2019. If Ontario is excluded from the Royal LePage National House Price Composite, Canadian price appreciation would sit at a modest 0.4 per cent increase compared to 2.7 per cent.

“The City of Toronto is still one of Canada’s fastest appreciating real estate markets,” said Soper. “Detached home prices are rising in line with inflation, but condominium prices are increasing at near double-digit levels as vertical living has become the primary new-build option in this growing, world-class city.”

Median home prices in the City of Toronto rose 5.8 per cent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2019. Two-storey home prices and bungalow home prices rose 4.8 per cent and 2.5 per cent year-over-year, respectively, while condo prices rose a weighty 9.3 per cent year-over-year. The overall GTA’s aggregate home price rose 3.4 per cent over the same period.

Real estate values in Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe region continued to appreciate at a brisk clip, as local economies grew and workers from the GTA looked to trade commuting time for lower house prices. Niagara/St. Catharines, Hamilton, and Kitchener/Waterloo/Cambridge aggregate prices were up by 6.9 per cent, 6.3 per cent and 8.9 per cent, respectively.

In eastern Ontario, Ottawa home prices appreciated by 7.7 per cent year-over-year. One of the principal advanced technology regions in North America, and home to much of the federal government’s labour force, household formation in the national capital region has been robust. The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa has now surpassed that of Calgary for the first time, a trend unforeseen five years ago.

Other notable price increases for Ontario cities include Kingston at 10.3 per cent increase, and in western Ontario, London and Windsor both experienced double-digit home price increases, rising 10.7 per cent and 12.4 per cent year-over-year, respectively.

While the overall provincial economy remains strong in British Columbia, its housing market remains vulnerable as government intervention continues to drive down real estate activity. For the first time since 2012, Greater Vancouver home prices declined year-over-year, with the aggregate price dipping 1.5 per cent for the first quarter of 2019 to $1,239,306, while overall listing volumes are increasing.

“The Greater Vancouver area remains one of the most desirable places to live in the world. Population growth is driving household formation and employment levels high. Yet policy intervention has induced a drop in home sales to levels not seen in three decades,” Soper said. “Hammering consumer confidence and artificially choking off demand with a series of new taxes and restrictive regulations doesn’t eliminate the need for new housing, it simply sidelines families in the short-term and fuels a disruptive boom-bust cycle.”

Some of the most desirable regions in Greater Vancouver are seeing home price declines. Properties in the region’s higher-end markets like West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, and the City of Vancouver are all declining in price offering buyers seeking luxury housing a rare window of opportunity to enter some of Canada’s highest priced markets.

Despite a recent rally in world oil prices, activity levels in the Canadian energy sector remain muted. While it is unlikely that the province will enter a technical recession, economic activity in Alberta is forecast to remain sluggish. The aggregate price of a home in Calgary, Edmonton, and Fort McMurray fell marginally by 1.5 per cent, 1.0 per cent, and 0.8 per cent to $468,974, $371,782 and $576,211, respectively.

In the first quarter of 2019, the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 5.5 per cent year-over-year to $406,332. The rate of home price appreciation in the Greater Montreal Area once again surpassed rates seen in the GTA (3.4 per cent), Greater Vancouver (-1.5 per cent) and the national average (2.7 per cent). All three reported housing types saw gains this quarter, with median home prices for two-storey homes, bungalows, and condominiums rising 6.4 per cent to $514,412, 3.7 per cent to $316,159 and 5.2 per cent to $328,488, respectively.

Economic activity in Atlantic Canada remains a mixed bag. Prince Edward Island is seeing solid economic growth, but persistently high unemployment rates have resulted in an aggregate price increase for a Charlottetown home of only 0.7 per cent year-over-year to $288,230. The demographics in Nova Scotia are favourable, as the province is benefiting from higher immigration and interprovincial migration numbers, and the region has a strong export sector. The aggregate price for a home in Halifax increased 1.6 per cent year-over-year to $318,733.

Meanwhile, the outlook for New Brunswick is mixed, with forecasters anticipating gains from an improving commodity sector will offset a declining population and an 8.5 per cent unemployment rate. In the first quarter, the aggregate price of a home in Saint John increased 1.9 per cent year-over-year to $213,290, while the aggregate price for a home in Moncton decreased 1.3 per cent year-over-year to $192,185. Similarly, the economy in Newfoundland and Labrador is sending mixed signals, as the current unemployment rate is 11.8 per cent but natural resource projects like the syndicate-operated Hebron Project, Husky’s White Rose oil field, and Vale’s Voisey’s Bay nickel mine are all expected to ramp up production. The aggregate price of a home in St. John’s decreased 5.6 per cent year-over-year to $324,955.

Read more about regional trends here.

Aggregated regions and the Royal LePage National House Price Composite (.PDF)

Q2 2019 Royal LePage Quarter-over-Quarter Forecast (.PDF)

 

About the Royal LePage House Price Survey

The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the three most common types of housing in Canada, in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. Housing values in the House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage National House Price Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada.  Commentary on housing and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.

 

About Royal LePage                                    

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of more than 18,000 real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE.

Contact us today for all your Real Estate needs.  Kathy & Dave – “Strength in Teamwork”.  See our blog for other interesting articles:  www.kathyanddave.ca

If you’re interested in learning more about the current housing market in the Niagara region, we would be happy to have a chat with you and answer any questions you may have. Come in for a visit or give us a call! It would be our pleasure to show you how selling your home in the current market could increase your financial gain.

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Royal LePage Spring 2019 Newsletter – Canadian Real Estate Markets Recovering

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Canadian real estate market begins recovery from the most significant housing correction in a decade

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey1, year-over-year home prices made healthy gains in many regions across Canada in the fourth quarter of 2018, continuing the recovery from the most significant housing correction since the financial crisis. Once again, the Greater Montreal Area saw the highest year-over-year home price appreciation rate of the three largest Canadian metropolitan areas studied.

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite, compiled from proprietary property data in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets, showed that the price of a home in Canada increased 4.0 per cent year-over-year to $631,223 in the fourth quarter of 2018. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 3.9 per cent year-over-year to $745,007, while the median price of a bungalow climbed 1.5 per cent to $516,950. Condominiums continued to see the highest rate of appreciation nationally when compared to the detached segment, rising 7.2 per cent year-over-year to $447,915.

“The invisible hand that guides our complex economy hit the real estate reset button in 2018 and that is a good thing,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Major market home price inflation through much of the decade had led to dangerous overheating in our most populous regions. Government regulatory intervention and rising interest rates, when combined with property price overshooting, triggered the correctional cycle we find ourselves working through today.”

The Canadian economy is performing well overall, with pockets of uncertainty. Persistently weak oil prices driven by domestic market access bottlenecks and global supply gluts have hit Western Canada hard, and trade tensions between China and the U.S. in particular are impacting consumer confidence across the continent.

“While some economists are adjusting their forecast for the economy as a whole, Canada’s real estate market is beginning to emerge from the correction that began a year ago. The national real estate market is stable and should see modest price gains by the end of the 2019,” said Soper.

Royal LePage projected modest home price appreciation in 2019 in its recent forecast, expecting the aggregate price of a home in Canada to rise 1.2 per cent in Canada over the next year.

To view the chart with aggregated regions and markets visit www.royallepage.ca/houseprices

For more information see www.royallepage.ca/mediaroom

1 Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions.

Your Spring maintenance checklist

Maintaining your home is crucial in preserving its value. By taking small actions throughout the year, you can save money by catching problems early, or even prevent them, before significant damage takes place. As soon as the snow thaws it’s the best time to do the rounds, both inside and outside your home, to make sure everything is working the way it should.

infographic

Create a stress-free kitchen

No matter its size, most people feel like there is never enough space in their kitchen. While ample space is key for a great kitchen, organizing it properly can save time too. After all, it is the most used room of a home. Here are some helpful tips to create a functional and stress-free kitchen.

Give each cabinet a purpose. The first step is to group

items and give each group a designated space. Not only will this allow you to find every item easily, you are less likely to use the space for items that don’t belong there. Limit bottom cabinets to cleaning supplies, large pots or appliances and items that are rarely used.

Put items you need the most in easy to grab spots. Measuring spoons, oven mitts and your go-to saucepan should be quickly accessible for stress-free, day-to-day use. Also, by keeping items close to where they are most used, you will find everything is exactly where you need it.

Increase visibility in your fridge and pantry. Clear containers and additional shelving will allow you to quickly locate items in your fridge. As for your pantry, consider using clear stackable bins, adjusting your shelves and work in levels. Adding a little light will go a long way!

Think outside the kitchen. Fancy dishes, large appliances that haven’t been used in months and unread cookbooks are great examples of items that do not need to be stored in your kitchen. Finding new homes for less-used items outside the kitchen is one of our favourite space-saving ideas.

Go for it! Paint your front door

A vibrant red, bright turquoise, regal blue or even mustard yellow. Bold colour choices can make your home stand out. With warm sunny days around the corner, it’s the perfect time to plan an exterior paint project. Here is some advice to get you started.

  • Don’t only look for an exterior paint, make sure the paint you choose is right for the door’s material

(wood, metal). Be sure to remember if you choose an oil-base or latex paint, as you can’t switch back and forth, for the inevitable future touch-ups.

  • Tape your colour swatch to the door and see how the colour looks at different times during the day.

  • Pick a warm, dry day and get started early! Before painting, you will need to remove your door and the hardware from its surface.

  • Thoroughly clean the door so dirt does not get trapped in the paint.

  • Don’t forget to use a primer coat. It’s the best way to get the most out of your new colour.

Honoured with prestigious philanthropy award

Royal LePage Shelter Foundation has received the 2018 Philanthropy Award for Outstanding Corporation from the Association of Fundraising Professionals, Greater Toronto Chapter. Presented to a corporation or its charitable foundation, this award celebrates the contribution of time, leadership and financial support of a special group of Canadians who set new benchmarks of excellence in the acts of giving and volunteering.

“We are honoured to have been nominated by our partner, Canadian Women’s Foundation, and to be recognized as philanthropic leaders,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “This award reflects the tireless and passionate efforts of our national network of REALTORS® and broker-owners who support the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation and its mission to promote safer homes and communities.”

Royal LePage Shelter Foundation has raised more than $29 million in its 20 year history and helps local women’s shelters provide a safe haven and new beginnings for more than 50,000 women and children every year. It is the largest public foundation in Canada dedicated exclusively to supporting women’s shelters and domestic violence prevention programs. Royal LePage offices are partnered with a women’s shelter in their community and agents make donations from their sales commissions, organize fundraising events and provide in-kind contributions.

“I am so grateful to Royal LePage agents, brokers and employees for their unwavering determination to help women and children lead safer, happier and more hopeful lives. I am thrilled that their efforts are being recognized with the 2018 Philanthropy Award for Outstanding Corporation,” said Shanan Spencer-Brown, executive director,Royal LePage Shelter Foundation.

Royal LePage is the only major real estate company with its own charity. The company pays all of the Foundation’s administrative costs allowing the total amount raised to remain in local communities. Learn more at www.royallepage.ca/shelter.

 

Contact us today for all your Real Estate needs.  Kathy & Dave – “Strength in Teamwork”.  See our blog for other interesting articles:  www.kathyanddave.ca

If you’re interested in learning more about the current housing market in the Niagara region, we would be happy to have a chat with you and answer any questions you may have. Come in for a visit or give us a call! It would be our pleasure to show you how selling your home in the current market could increase your financial gain.

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Royal LePage 4th Quarter 2018 House Price Survey

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The Q4 2018 Royal LePage House Price Survey was released to media. Below you will find highlights from the release, links to social media assets available for you to read.

Key highlights from the national release include:

  • The price of a home in Canada increased 4.0 per cent year-over-year to $631,223 in the fourth quarter of 2018, continuing the recovery from the most significant housing correction since the financial crisis. Condominiums continued to see the highest rate of appreciation nationally when compared to the detached segment, rising 7.2 per cent year-over-year to $447,915.
  • The Canadian economy is performing well overall, with pockets of uncertainty. Persistently weak oil prices driven by domestic market access bottlenecks and global supply gluts have hit Western Canada hard, and trade tensions between China and the U.S. in particular are impacting consumer confidence across the continent.
  • The GTA was a story of contrasts. The City of Toronto experienced a strong rebound in the fourth quarter, while the surrounding areas remained relatively weak year-over-year. Prices in Toronto saw sizable increases, rising 8.8 per cent compared to 3.4 per cent gains for the GTA more broadly.
  • The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area passed the $400,000 mark, rising to $407,230, an increase of 4.1 per cent from the same period last year.  This represents a higher rate of appreciation than that seen in both the GTA and Greater Vancouver, and above the national aggregate percentage increase.
  • Home price appreciation in Greater Vancouver grew at a modest pace rising 2.1 per cent in the fourth quarter from the year before, to an aggregate price of $1,274,831. More affordable suburbs like Langley, Surrey, and Coquitlam that had seen double digit price growth in previous quarters grew at a more modest pace rising 2.4 per cent, 2.3 per cent, and 0.4 per cent respectively.

A big thank you to all of our spokespeople from across the country for their contributions in providing regional perspectives. Regional insights can be found in both the national release and in city-specific releases.

Social media

We have developed a series of images for the national and largest real estate markets analyzed in the Survey. Feel free to use them and share them on your social media channels!

 

Media coverage

Consumers, organizations and the media turn to Royal LePage as a trusted source for expert commentary. So far today we have achieved great media coverage, including:

BNN Bloomberg: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/calgary-housing-market-remarkably-resilient-despite-low-oil-prices-royal-lepage-1.1197062

Montreal Gazette (also print): https://montrealgazette.com/business/local-business/real-estate/real-estate-price-increase-in-montreal-tops-toronto-vancouver

Edmonton Journal: https://edmontonjournal.com/business/local-business/real-estate/real-estate-price-increase-in-montreal-tops-toronto-vancouver/wcm/2d32b1c4-1e31-4d24-aafa-94816d147c5b

The Province: https://theprovince.com/business/local-business/real-estate/real-estate-price-increase-in-montreal-tops-toronto-vancouver/wcm/2d32b1c4-1e31-4d24-aafa-94816d147c5b

Vancouver Sun: https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/real-estate/real-estate-price-increase-in-montreal-tops-toronto-vancouver/wcm/2d32b1c4-1e31-4d24-aafa-94816d147c5b

CBC News Montreal: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-real-estate-2019-1.4973418

CBC News Hamilton: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/real-estate-condo-1.4973989

CHEK News: https://www.cheknews.ca/victoria-aggregate-house-price-climbs-8-4-per-cent-in-fourth-quarter-of-2018-royal-lepage-survey-523727/

Daily Hive: https://dailyhive.com/toronto/toronto-condo-prices-increase-2018

Daily Hive: https://dailyhive.com/montreal/montreal-real-estate-record-numbers-2018

Global News : https://globalnews.ca/news/4837354/mortgage-stress-test-higher-interest-rates-saskatoon-housing-market/

Global News: https://globalnews.ca/news/4837332/hamilton-average-house-price/

ICI Radio Canada: https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1146161/prix-maisons-condos-royal-lepage-etude-proprietes  

Calgary’s Business: https://calgarysbusiness.ca/albertas-business2/home-prices-rise-calgary-edmonton/

Kitchener Today: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/local-news/housing-report-for-q4-of-2018-shows-stability-1191702

Le Droit: https://www.ledroit.com/affaires/un-printemps-2019-exceptionnel-a-gatineau-3589e233bdddfb65cdebd82bd824bd6d  

Le Journal de Québec: https://www.journaldequebec.com/2019/01/10/le-marche-immobilier-termine-lannee-avec-des-prix-en-hausse

Ottawa Business Journal: https://obj.ca/index.php/article/sellers-market-drives-ottawa-home-prices-9-q4-2018-royal-lepage

Saskatoon Star Phoenix (also print): https://thestarphoenix.com/news/local-news/buyers-market-continues-but-rebound-expected-in-2019

The Province: https://theprovince.com/news/local-news/buyers-market-continues-but-rebound-expected-in-2019/wcm/71639316-c603-4897-b411-e43fb62faad4

The Quebec Post: https://theqpost.com/the-real-estate-market-ended-the-year-with-prices-rising/97559

The Star Halifax: https://www.thestar.com/halifax/2019/01/11/the-average-home-in-halifax-will-now-cost-you-more-than-321000.html

Troy Media: http://troymedia.com/2019/01/11/home-prices-rise-calgary-edmonton/

TVA Nouvelles: https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/01/11/le-marche-de-quebec-termine-avec-des-prix-en-hausse

TVA Nouvelles: https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/01/11/montreal-depasse-toronto-et-vancouver

Contact us today for all your Real Estate needs.  Kathy & Dave – “Strength in Teamwork”.  See our blog for other interesting articles:  www.kathyanddave.ca

If you’re interested in learning more about the current housing market in the Niagara region, we would be happy to have a chat with you and answer any questions you may have. Come in for a visit or give us a call! It would be our pleasure to show you how selling your home in the current market could increase your financial gain.

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